Publications

According to the narratives transmitted through media and political discourse, climate change reduces the ice coverage in the Arctic and enhances shipping and other forms of maritime activities. Especially, expectations of an increasing level of transit shipping between Asian, especially Chinese, ports and ports in Europe and North America is dominant. Evidence, however, tells that the numbers of transit shipping through the Arctic Ocean are very limited, and dominated by European shipping companies. For Greenland, political expectations have also been high, since Greenland has been seen as "strategically" situated in relation to new shipping routes in the Arctic, But, again, the actual development has been moderate and not related to international transits but conditions in Greenland itself.

The sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk significantly in the last decades. The transport pattern has as a result partly changed with more traffic in remote areas. This change may influence the risk pattern. The critical factors are harsh weather, ice conditions, remoteness and vulnerability of nature. In this paper, we look into the risk of accidents in Atlantic Arctic based on previous ship accidents and the changes in maritime activity. The risk has to be assessed to ensure a proper level of emergency response. The consequences of incidents depend on the incident type, scale and location. As accidents are rare, there are limited statistics available for Arctic maritime accidents. Hence, this study offers a qualitative analysis and an expert-based risk assessment. Implications for the emergency preparedness system of the Arctic region are discussed.

The sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk significantly in the last decades. Partly as a result, the transport pattern has changed with more traffic in remote areas. This change may increase the risk of accidents. The critical factors are harsh weather, ice conditions, remoteness and vulnerability. In this paper we look into the risks of accidents in the Atlantic Arctic based on previous ship accidents and the changes in maritime activity. The risk has to be assessed to ensure a proper level of response in emergency situations. As accidents are rare, there are limited statistics available for Arctic marine accidents. Therefore, in this study a mostly qualitative analysis and expert judgement is the basis for the risk assessments. Implications for the emergency preparedness system of the region are discussed. The consequences of incidents depend on the incident type, scale and location.

This report provides a discussion on dominating risk factors, risk types and probability of unwanted incidents in the Arctic region. It also provides a coarse-grained evaluation of the potential consequences of different incidents in the northern sea areas of Russia, Norway, Greenland, and Iceland. The risk assessment build upon statistics on vessel activity, case studies of real incidents, and expert evaluation of defined situations of hazard and accident (DSHA). The evaluations of this study may serve as a platform for more detailed assessments, and as input for discussions on priority areas in respect to safety measures and emergency preparedness. In the Marpart Project, the risk assessments have a special role as input into the analyses of emergency management capabilities, and the need for special government efforts in cross-border cooperation.

This report analyzes the current commercial and governmental activity in the sea regions north of the Polar Circle from the Northern Sea Route to the North West Passage. The study embraces sea and coastal areas of the North West of Russia, Northern Norway and around Svalbard, Iceland and Greenland. It includes an overview of types of vessels and other objects involved in different activities, and the volume of traffic connected to different types of activities, such as fisheries, petroleum, tourism, navy and research. Furthermore, this report estimates the maritime activity level in the area the next ten years, or until 2025, and the potential development of the regional preparedness system.